The break-even number you have been given is probably wrong
Ask any refinance calculator when you break even and it will divide your closing costs by your monthly saving. Six thousand dollars of costs against four hundred a month: fifteen months. Clean, memorable, and incomplete.
The problem is that it treats a dollar of payment as a dollar of cost, when part of every payment is not a cost at all — it is principal, money moving from one pocket to another. If your new loan runs longer than your old one, less of each payment is principal, so a payment that is $400 smaller is not $400 better off. The naive break-even cannot see this, because it never looks at what you still owe.
The calculator above therefore reports two figures. The familiar one, because you came here expecting it. And a second that asks a better question: if I sold the house in month N, which decision would have left me richer? That means counting the cash paid plus the balance still outstanding, on both loans, at every month — which is exactly what the chart plots.
The term trap
Here is the case that costs people the most money, and it does not look like a mistake while you are making it.
You are ten years into a 30-year mortgage. Rates have come down a little. Your lender offers 6.25% against the 6.5% you are paying, on a new 30-year term, for $6,000 in costs. Your payment drops by about $325 a month. The break-even, calculated the usual way, is nineteen months. Every signal says yes.
Over the life of the loan, that refinance costs you roughly $113,000 more than doing nothing.
The rate improvement is real but small, and it is nowhere near enough to pay for the ten extra years you just added. You had twenty years left; you now have thirty. The monthly saving is not a saving at all — it is the same debt, stretched.
The fix costs nothing: match the new term to the years you have left. On the example loaded in the calculator above — $300,000 at 7% with 25 years remaining, refinanced at 5.5% —
- Into a new 30-year term: saves $417 a month, and about $17,000 over the life of the loan.
- Into a 25-year term: saves $278 a month, and about $77,000 over the life of the loan.
Same rate, same closing costs, more than four times the benefit. Note also that the naive break-even ranks these backwards: it favours the 30-year option, at 15 months against 22. Optimising for the number most calculators show you leads you to the worse decision.
When refinancing is clearly worth it
- The rate drop is meaningful and you keep the term. This is the straightforward win, and it is the case the old one-percent rule was groping toward.
- You are staying put well past the true break-even. If the honest measure says four years and you intend to be there for fifteen, the decision is easy.
- You can shorten the term at a similar payment. Moving from 30 years to 15 at a lower rate sometimes costs little more per month and saves enormously.
- You are dropping mortgage insurance. If your equity has passed 20%, refinancing out of an FHA loan that carries permanent MIP can be worth it on the insurance alone.
When it usually is not
- You might move before the true break-even. Closing costs are paid up front and recovered slowly; leaving early means you simply paid them.
- The only gain is a lower payment via a longer term. That is not a saving, it is a deferral — and the calculator will say so.
- You are near the end of the loan. By then most of your payment is already principal, so there is little interest left for a better rate to save.
- You would roll costs in and move soon. The worst combination: you finance the fees and then leave before they are recovered.
What this calculator does not model
A fixed rate on both loans, no cash-out, and no change to property tax or insurance — those continue regardless and are not affected by refinancing. It does not model adjustable rates after their initial period, points paid to buy the rate down, or the tax treatment of mortgage interest, which varies by circumstance and can shift the comparison. For the payment itself including escrow, use the mortgage calculator; to see what overpaying your existing loan would achieve instead, try the mortgage payoff calculator — it is often the better move when a refinance is marginal.